【新刊速递】《太平洋评论》The Pacific Review，Vol.34，N

时间：2023-01-24

　　期刊简介

　　《太平洋评论》（The Pacific Review）是太平洋地区研究的主要平台，作为跨学科期刊，其宗旨和目标为打破研究领域之间以及学术界、新闻界、政府和商界之间的壁垒，重点关注政策问题。根据Journal Citation Reports显示，2019年该刊的影响因子为1.633，在区域研究类SSCI期刊中排名11/77，在国际关系类SSCI期刊中排名第35/95。

　　本期编委

　　【编译】李思李月云钱靓戎秦婴程朵依

　　【校审】李博轩姚寰宇吕紫烟

　　【排版】韩心蕊

　　【美编】方引弓

　　本期目录

　　1.军事&技术层面上美利坚和平的终结？美国对中国人工智能军事技术的战略回应

　　The end of military-techno Pax Americana? Washington’s strategic responses to Chinese AI-enabled military technology

　　2.中国国有石油公司的政治经济变迁

　　The changing political economy of central state-owned oil companies in China

　　3.澳大利亚和新西兰对华政策的重新调整：趋同与分歧

　　Australia and New Zealand recalibrate their China policies: convergence and divergence

　　4. 日本再军事化中作为幕后推手的既得利益：新古典现实主义视角下对导弹防御系统部署的案例研究

　　Vested interests as a hidden driver of Japan’s remilitarization: the case of BMD deployment through a neoclassical realist approach

　　5. “一带一路”倡议下国际争端解决机制的中国改革篇章

　　The reforming Chinese chapter of international dispute resolution under the belt and road initiative

　　6.中国的中亚能源外交及对“一带一路”倡议的影响

　　China’s energy diplomacy towards Central Asia and the implications on its “belt and road initiative”

　　军事&技术层面上美利坚和平的终结？美国对中国人工智能军事技术的战略回应

　　【题目】The end of military-techno Pax Americana? Washington’s strategic responses to Chinese AI-enabled military technology

　　【作者】James Johnson博士，美国詹姆斯·马丁防扩散研究中心（James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies）与蒙特雷国际研究院（Middlebury Institute of International Studies）博士后研究员。

　　【摘要】本文引用以国际关系中的“极（polarity）”的概念，探讨大国在人工智能（AI）和相关技术领域的动态变化。本文论述了在几个相互关联的军民两用技术领域中，大国竞争是如何加剧的以及其原因是什么、为什么华盛顿认为这些创新具有战略性重要意义，以及美国正如何应对中国对其技术霸权构成的挑战以及其目的是什么。本文提出的以下问题补充了现有研究的漏洞：竞争日益激烈的中美关系是否会主导世界政治，创造出一个新的两极世界秩序，而不是多极世界秩序？为什么美国认为中国在军民两用人工智能技术的提高是对其先发优势的威胁？美国将如何应对它所受到威胁？

　　This article uses the international relations (IR) ‘polarity’ concept as a lens to view the shifting great power dynamics in artificial intelligence (AI) and related enabling technologies. The article describes how and why great power competition is mounting in within several interrelated dual-use technological fields; why these innovations are considered by Washington to be strategically vital, and how (and to what end) the United States is responding to the perceived challenge posed by China to its technological hegemony. The following questions addressed in this paper fill a gap in the existing literature: Will the increasingly competitive U.S.-China relationship dominate world politics creating a new bipolar world order, as opposed to a multipolar one? Why does the U.S. view China’s progress in dual-use AI as a threat to its first-mover advantage? How might the U.S. respond to this perceived threat?

　　【编译】李思

　　【审校】姚寰宇

　　中国国有石油公司的政治经济变迁

　　【题目】The changing political economy of central state-owned oil companies in China

　　【作者】陈芷汀（Zhiting Chen），东南大学人文学院公共管理系讲师、博士，研究方向主要是国际政治经济学、工业产业政策和国有企业改革。

　　Geoffrey C. Chen，西交利物浦大学人文社科院中国研究系副教授兼系主任，研究方向主要是政治经济学、能源治理和环境政治学。

　　【摘要】本文旨在通过解读中国石油行业国有企业的制度建立和重建，以及制度环境的变化，来重新认识石油行业中国有企业的市场化过程。20世纪80年代开始的国有石油企业改革和部分市场自由化并没有将石油部门推向新自由主义市场的轨道。相反，国家优势得到了重新巩固，坚持的制度实践使市场形成成为可能。国家的角色不是固定的，而是随着国有企业的市场化进程而变化。国家通过运用市场机制有效提高自身权力，构建灵活的经济治理结构，重建了自己在市场中的权威角色。在这种国家与市场相互塑造的格局中，市场化与经济安全这两个看似矛盾的概念的结合，在一定程度上促进了国有石油企业的发展，扩大了国有石油企业的资产规模。本文有助于就中国融入全球资本主义经济的国家-市场关系和能源治理的制度进行更广泛的讨论。

　　This research seeks to reconceptualise the process of marketizing central state-owned enterprises (CSOEs) in the Chinese petroleum industry by interpreting their institutional establishment and reconstruction, and the change in their institutional context. The enterprise reform of state-owned oil companies, and the partial market liberalization initiated in the 1980s, have not pushed the petroleum sector toward the trajectory of the neoliberal free market. On the contrary, the state’s ascendency has been reconsolidated, and the institutional practice adhered to has made market-shaping possible. The state’s role is not fixed; rather, it has varied following the marketization process of the CSOEs. The state has reconstructed its role to strengthen its authority in the market, using market mechanisms to effectively improve its power to construct a flexible economic governance structure. In such a structure, where the state and market have mutually shaped each other, the combination of the two seemingly conflicting concepts of marketization and economic security has, to some degree, fostered the development of state-owned oil companies and expanded the scale of their asset-holding. The paper contributes to the broader discussion of state-market relationships and the institutionalization of energy governance with regard to China’s integration into the global capitalist economy.

　　【编译】李月云

　　【审校】姚寰宇

　　澳大利亚和新西兰对华政策的重新调整：趋同与分歧

　　【题目】Australia and New Zealand recalibrate their China policies: convergence and divergence

　　【作者】Patrick K?llner，柏林洪堡大学经济与社会科学学院教授。

　　【摘要】近年来，澳大利亚和新西兰一直是西方与中国对抗的前沿阵地。尽管两国与中国有密切的经济往来，但其对华政策都已发生实质性变化。本文评估并比较了澳大利亚和新西兰对华政策调整的部分，侧重于不同时间和环境下两国对华政策的异同。首先是澳大利亚“重置”其对华政策，尤其是在2018年通过了关于间谍活动和外国干涉的法案。换届后新西兰政府的对华政策向澳大利亚看齐。相比而言，新西兰的政策调整更加委婉和具有争议性，从整体来看态度也更加模糊。小国理论在一定程度上可以解释新西兰矛盾的做法。通过对比新西兰与澳大利亚在战略展望（包括在外交事务上对贸易的高度重视）上的不同，我们可以更全面地理解新西兰的对华政策。

　　Australia and New Zealand (NZ) have in recent years been at the forefront of the growing confrontation between the ‘West’ and China. Despite very close economic ties with China, both countries have substantially changed their approaches to dealing with the People’s Republic. In this article, I take stock of and compare the Australian and NZ recalibrations of their respective China policies, highlighting similarities as well as differences across the two country contexts and over time. It was Australian federal state actors who first embarked on a major ‘reset’ of China policy, culminating in legislation on espionage and foreign interference in 2018. After a change in government, state authorities in NZ appeared to follow Australia’s lead. However, NZ’s adjustment of its China policy has been less straightforward, more contested and overall more ambiguous. Small-state theories partly explain NZ’s more ambivalent approach. A more comprehensive understanding can be gained by reference to how NZ differs from its Tasman neighbour in terms of strategic outlook, including the paramount importance accorded to trade in its foreign affairs.

　　【编译】钱靓

　　【审校】李博轩

　　日本再军事化中作为幕后推手的既得利益：新古典现实主义视角下对导弹防御系统部署的案例研究

　　【题目】Vested interests as a hidden driver of Japan’s remilitarization: the case of BMD deployment through a neoclassical realist approach

　　【作者】Yuki Watai，华威大学政治与国际关系系博士候选人。

　　【摘要】日本在2003年通过部署弹道导弹防御系统(BMD)转向平衡，这并不完全是由古典现实主义的结构性刺激所致。相反，这是因为国际结构和国内政治的动态互动，新古典主义现实主义更细微地捕捉到了这一点。本文认为，“既得利益”的概念（如经济利益），而不一定是领导人对威胁的感知，是日本在部署BMD的幕后推手，在日本再军事化过程中起着至关重要的作用。现有的文献没有准确地捕捉到日本是如何选择BMD作为平衡手段的，“为什么”日本转向平衡，以及“何时”日本完成了转向并开始平衡。因此，本文试图通过对现有现实主义范式的补充，在结构与外交政策结果之间建立一座具有单位级变量的理论桥梁，其价值在于保证理论严谨性的同时，兼具极强的解释力。这篇论文有助于展开一场实质性辩论，即日本为何、何时以及如何发生转变，开始平衡其以往的行为，并进一步推动了一场更广泛的理论辩论，即一个大国如何应对一个崛起中的强国。

　　Japan’s shift to balancing through the deployment of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) in 2003 is not solely accounted for by the structural incentives in conventional realism. Rather, it is because of a dynamic interaction of the structure and domestic politics, which is more nuancedly captured by neoclassical realism. This paper posits that the concept of ‘vested interests’ such as economic ones, and not necessarily leaders’ perception of threat, plays a crucial role as a hidden driver of Japan’s remilitarisation regarding BMD. The existing literature does not accurately capture ‘how’ Japan chose the option of BMD as a means of balancing, ‘why’ Japan shifted to balance and ‘when’ it completes the shift and begins balancing. Therefore, by supplementing the existing realist paradigms, the paper intends to establish a theoretical bridge between structure and foreign policy outcome with unit-level variables, the value of which lie in the level of maintenance of theoretical rigour with strong explanatory power. The paper contributes to the substantive debate on why, when and how Japan’s shift occurred to begin balancing from its previous behaviour, with further contributions to a broader theoretical debate on how a major state responds to a rising power.

　　【编译】姚寰宇

　　【审校】吕紫烟

　　“一带一路”倡议下国际争端解决机制的中国改革篇章

　　【题目】The reforming Chinese chapter of international dispute resolution under the belt and road initiative

　　【作者】陈梦，中山大学法学学士，对外经济贸易大学法学硕士，美国威斯康辛麦迪逊大学法律硕士、法学博士。自2016年博士毕业后入职深圳大学法学院至今。研究领域为国际法、国际贸易法、国际商事仲裁、多元化纠纷解决。

　　【摘要】作为在国际经济中日益重要的参与者，中国有意为完善国际争端解决机制作出更多贡献。为实现“一带一路”倡议（BRI），中国正积极协调本国法律体系，完善国际争端解决机制的中国章节，以促进国际贸易的发展和相关国家政策的完善。面对与美国冲突的不断升级，中国更加坚定了积极参与国际争端解决的决心。本文介绍了中国法律关于国际争端解决机制的全貌，以及法律体系受“一带一路”倡议启发的几项重要创新。同时本文阐述了各种争端解决方法的最新进展，为国内外的争端各方提供更高效的解决方式。

　　As an increasingly important player in the international economy, China intends to contribute more to the improvement in international dispute resolution. To achieve the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is actively coordinating its legal system to present an improved Chinese chapter of the international dispute resolution regime to facilitate increasing international trade and related national policies. Escalating conflicts with the United States have strengthened China’s determination to actively participate in international dispute resolution. This article presents a complete picture of the Chinese legal international dispute resolution regime and addresses several important innovations inspired by the BRI in the Chinese legal system. This article also elaborates on the latest developments in various dispute resolution methods that could provide more efficient dispute resolution services to both domestic and foreign disputants.

　　【编译】戎秦婴

　　【审校】李博轩

　　中国的中亚能源外交及对“一带一路”倡议的影响

　　【题目】China’s energy diplomacy towards Central Asia and the implications on its “belt and road initiative”

　　【作者】廖炫丽（Janet Xuanli Liao），英国邓迪大学（University of Dundee）大学能源、石油和矿产法律政策中心（the Center for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy，CEPMLP）高级讲师，在北京大学获得历史专业学士与硕士学位，并在日本国际大学（International University of Japan）获得国际关系专业硕士学位，在香港大学获得国际关系专业博士学位，主要研究领域是中国的能源外交和气候外交。

　　【摘要】上世纪90年代末，大多数学者认为中国在中亚的石油投资是由能源需求或地缘政治野心推动的。然而事实上，中国的这一举动是出于对西部疆域安全的考虑，能源被用作与邻国建立政治关系的工具。20多年来，中国一跃成为中亚地区地缘政治的关键角色之一。许多观察者都很想弄清楚，为什么中国虽然专注于能源外交，但仍不可避免地介入了欧亚地区的“大博弈”，以及这对“一带一路”倡议有何影响。本文试图从地缘政治学的视角，通过追溯中国在中亚的能源外交回答上述问题。本文以中国与哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦的交往以及其中的俄罗斯因素为重点，揭示了中国进入这场“大博弈”的主要原因：政治与中国能源的纠缠；上海合作组织的成立；以及管线图的变化。中国的地缘政治优势主要与俄罗斯的利益的让步有关，尽管后者也选择接受了中国在中亚的更多参与，以应对形势的变化。“一带一路”倡议的推出增强了中国介入中亚的地缘政治影响，但也引发了各种批评，包括债务陷阱和治理相关问题。中国国内涉疆事务也是一个分歧点。中国或许需要重新审视其务实外交，并采取更为自由的态度包容不同的政治观点。伴随着更大的权力潜力，中国应该与其他大国一道，为确保中亚地区的和平与稳定承担更多的责任：这不仅是为了“一带一路”倡议的成功，也是为了全人类的利益。

　　China’s oil investment in Central Asia from the late 1990s was not driven by energy needs or geopolitical ambitions, like many assumed. The real concern was the safety of its western boundary, while energy was used as an instrument to forge political ties with its neighbours. However, China has become one of the key geopolitical players in Central Asia after more than 20?years engagement, and many observers are keen to find out why has Beijing failed to escape the grand games while focusing on energy diplomacy? And, what is the implications of China’s new status in Central Asia on its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? This article attempts to answer the questions via reviewing China’s energy diplomacy towards Central Asia, from the lens of geopolitics. Focusing on China’s dealing with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as well as the Russian factor, the research has revealed the main reasons that led China into the grand games: the entangling of politics and China’s energy engagements; the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; and the changes of the pipeline map. China’s geopolitical gains have mainly made at the cost of Russia, though the latter chose to accept Beijing’s greater presence in Central Asia against the changed circumstances. The launch of the BRI scheme has amplified China’s geopolitical significance in Central Asia, but also triggered various criticisms, including the debt traps and governance-related issues. China’s dealing with the Muslims in Xinjiang was also a point of disagreement. Beijing may need to revisit its pragmatic featured diplomacy, and to take a more liberal approach to accommodate different political perspectives. With greater power potential, Beijing should bear more responsibilities to ensure peace and stability in Central Asia, together with other powers, not only for the sake of BRI’s success, but also for the interest of the mankind.

　　【编译】程朵依

　　【校对】姚寰宇

　　好好学习，天天“在看”